AAP's Weakening in Punjab Politics: Can BJP Capitalize?

Punjab politics is once again going through a transition phase. In 2022, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) had won power with a historic victory of 92 seats and broke the traditional Congress-Akali dichotomy with a vote share of around 42%. Now the 2027 assembly elections are around the corner and the ruling party's position is not the same. The way the BJP has continuously infiltrated into Punjab politics is sending the message that the party is seeing some hope here. The question is, is the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) going to get concrete benefits from this weakness of the AAP? The ruling party AAP had first indicated its weakening in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The AAP's vote share fell from 42.3% to 26.2% and it was ahead in only 33 assembly segments, while in 2022 it had won 92 seats. The Congress was ahead in 37 segments and the BJP in 23. The BJP's vote share increased from 6.6% to 18.6% in a recent Intelligence Survey (September 202). The BJP's vote share is estimated to be around 38%.