Bangladesh Elections: Centre-Right BNP Wins, Boosting India-Bangladesh Relations

Bangladesh politics explained: The Tarique Rahman-led centre-right Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) won the Bangladesh elections on Friday (February 13), trouncing rivals led by the Jamaat-e-Islami. In the first polls held since Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted in August 2024, the BNP seemed on course to win a two-thirds majority in the 300-member Parliament. In the absence of Hasina’s Awami League, the results were also a boost to the Islamist Jamaat, whose share of seats rose manifold — from its earlier record of 18 seats in 1991 to more than 60 this time. Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Rahman for the “decisive victory” in a post on X, as it became clear that his party would comfortably cross the majority mark. These developments hold the key to the future of India-Bangladesh relations, which have been tumultuous following Hasina’s removal. India has dealt with the BNP since General Ziaur Rahman, Tarique Rahman’s father, founded the party in 1978. His wife, Khaleda Zia , took over after his assassination and was central in shaping the party’s ideology and actions since 1982. Tarique Rahman, 60, took over control after her death late last year, shortly after he returned to Bangladesh after 17 years of self-exile. It was during the Khaleda Zia-led BNP-Jamaat coalition government between 2001 and 2006 that a sense of bitterness with India emerged. For India, the fact that insurgent groups in the Northeast and other terror groups were allowed to operate from Bangladeshi soil, and reports of Jamaat leaders giving protection to those elements, constituted a major security threat. After 2008, when Hasina came to power, she cracked down on these organisations, marking the beginning of strong counter-terrorism cooperation between India and Bangladesh. New Delhi was relieved, but Hasina domestically leveraged the crackdown to also go after Jamaat leaders and the opposition BNP. While India looked the other way, Hasina continued with her campaign against the political opposition in the name of cracking down on terror groups. Following the Hasina government’s collapse after large-scale protests in 2024, opposition parties swiftly occupied the political vacuum. The BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami have a full playing field, with the Awami League banned from contesting and Hasina taking refuge in India. Pivot after Hasina On Friday, PM Modi was quick to congratulate Tarique Rahman and call up the leader. Interestingly, the congratulatory post came before the official results were announced. “This victory shows the trust of the people of Bangladesh in your leadership. India will continue to stand in support of a democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh,” the Prime Minister wrote. That quick response is indicative of the BNP’s win appearing to be a foregone conclusion, as well as India’s intentions to engage with the new government. India had also reached out to Rahman after Khaleda Zia’s death, with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar travelling to Dhaka in December to convey condolences and attend her funeral. That gesture helped the state of bilateral relations, and Rahman or any top BNP leaders did not make any India-critical statements during the election campaign. Even upon his return to Bangladesh, when Rahman received a hero’s welcome last year, he struck a conciliatory tone in his public speech. “We have people from the hills and the plains in this country: Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists and Christians. We want to build a safe Bangladesh, where every woman, man and child can leave home safely,” he said. Apart from the promises of freebies in their manifestoes, too, the BNP and the Jamaat have made statements that have been positively interpreted by many in Delhi and Dhaka. The BNP’s manifesto says that its foreign policy will be based on ‘Bangladesh Before All’, and doesn’t mention India at all. “‘Friend Yes, Master No’ – Establishing Relations with Other States Based on Equality and Self-Dignity,” it said, in an oblique reference to India, which is widely perceived as having a dominant influence in Bangladesh. Further, the manifesto reads that “Bangladesh will not interfere in other states’ internal matters and will not allow interference in its own matters” — seen as a euphemism for zero tolerance for anti-India activities in Bangladesh. Jamaat has also been conciliatory towards India, as its manifesto reads, “Peaceful, friendly, and cooperative relations will be built with neighboring and nearby countries — including India, Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Thailand — based on mutual respect and fairness.” What is important to note is that neither party has mentioned Pakistan in their manifestos, despite the interim government having deepened ties in the post-Hasina period, but they have spoken of the “Muslim world”. While the BNP has said that “Building a ‘Strategic Partnership’ with the Muslim World” is one of its commitments, Jamaat has said, “The strengthening of relations with countries of the Muslim world shall be a key foreign policy priority”. Challenges for India Firstly, there is the pressing issue of Hasina remaining in India. The BNP chief will face criticism from the Jamaat if it doesn’t press for her extradition. He would also not want Hasina to make politically provocative statements from India. Secondly, the economic ties are crucial for both sides. Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner in South Asia, covering sectors like textiles and energy, and it would want trade to flourish in the interest of a stable Bangladesh. For Bangladesh, too, it would be prudent to maintain ties with a key trade partner. Thirdly, India would not want the security situation in Bangladesh to deteriorate and resemble the previous BNP tenure. This is an important ask from Delhi, and channels of communication have been opened with the Jamaat leadership to that end. Fourthly, Delhi is keen to continue its development and connectivity projects, with some networks being developed to link Assam, Meghalaya and Tripura to Sylhet and Dhaka for easier access. But given the prevalent anti-India sentiments on the streets of Bangladesh, that will have to be dealt with sensitively by India. Fifth, Bangladesh and India need to improve people-to-people ties. Bangladeshi citizens come to India for medical treatments, tourism and more, and India’s development of a system to cater to the demographic can go a long way in creating goodwill. Mechanisms like long-term and multiple-entry visa regimes matter in this regard. Sixth is the connected issue of the huge economic migration from Bangladesh to India. The issue of Bangladeshi immigration has already become a political issue in several Indian states, often raised as part of the BJP’s political platform. It must be managed amicably and sensitively. Seventh, India would not want an extremist and anti-minority turn in Bangladesh society, and it would be in the BNP’s interest to keep those elements under check. Statements from Delhi about the recent spate of attacks on Hindus and religious minorities can only go so far, and it is the leaders in Bangladesh who must match that sentiment. Eighth, ensuring cooperation in these areas can cumulatively help prevent Bangladesh from turning towards Pakistan or China. In the past, PM Modi described the ties under Sheikh Hasina as constituting a “ Shonali adhyay ” (golden chapter). Despite the several issues plaguing the ties today, if managed well, that period could potentially return and serve both countries well.