Dubai Real Estate Market Expects Short-Term Moderation Due to West Asia Conflict

Bengaluru: The West Asia conflict is likely to cause a short-term sales moderation as buyers have paused purchases, especially off-plan units by Indian developers. However, Dubai 's resilient fundamentals and 6-8 per cent yields suggest a quick recovery post-clarity. ANYTIME, ANYWHERE. Experience a more refined e-paper today READ NOW ADVERTISEMENT ADVERTISEMENT "At this point, we do not expect a structural downturn. That said, the situation remains fluid and is influenced by factors and people who are not necessarily very predictable," said Prashant Thakur, Executive Director & Head - Research Advisory, ANAROCK Group. Dubai’s real estate market depends heavily on international investors and expatriate residents. Any perception of rising geopolitical risk can lead investors to temporarily adopt a wait-and-watch approach. Such sentiment shifts typically affect off-plan purchases and speculative investments first, as these segments are more sensitive to market confidence, Thakur said. ANAROCK data shows Indians dominated Dubai's residential market in 2025, accounting for 23 per cent of foreign transactions (up from 12 per cent in 2023). Indians and people of Indian origin accounted for housing purchases worth Rs 85,000-95,000 crore of the $250 billion in total real estate deals across all asset classes. ADVERTISEMENT ADVERTISEMENT Real estate developers also expect a recalibration in prices as buyers opt for a ‘wait and watch’ scenario. Vickram Anand, MD, Emperors Capital Services, Dubai, said, “The current ‘wait-and-see’ sentiment, triggered by regional geopolitics, has created a healthy recalibration, particularly in the luxury and off-plan segments, where we anticipate selective 20–25 per cent price adjustments. This is not a downturn; it is a rare tactical entry point for serious investors." “My advice is clear: existing investors should hold, while those on the sidelines should view the next few months as one of the strongest windows we have seen since 2020 to deploy capital at scale,” he added. The recent flare-up between Iran and Israel has understandably created nervousness among investors worldwide, including those looking to invest in Dubai, said Abhishek Raj, Founder & CEO of Jenika Ventures. Bengaluru-based developer Puravankara is witnessing an uptick in enquiries from NRIs looking to buy a home back in India while continuing to work in Dubai. Also Read:Lara Dutta says situation in Dubai is "scary" but she hasn't felt "unsafe" Also Read:Lara Dutta says situation in Dubai is "scary" but she hasn't felt "unsafe" "It is too early, and we don’t think such decisions will be made so soon. Puravankara has seen an uptick in enquiries from NRIs, but this could be attributed to the fact that we are in the middle of project launches, rather than regional developments. We believe that eventually, some people who earlier wished to stay permanently in Dubai or other cities in the UAE may reconsider their decision. They could choose to own a home in India while continuing to work there," said Mallanna Sasalu, CEO-South, Puravankara Limited. Dhruv Sarkar, Chief Business Operations & Sahil Marshall, Chief Wealth Maker at Bhaarat Wealth Group, said increased geopolitical tensions in West Asia, especially in markets like Dubai and the UAE, frequently cause investors to reevaluate the security of their capital. An estimated 35–40 per cent of property purchases in Dubai's real estate market are made by Indian investors, who contribute significantly to the flow of capital into these areas. A portion of this capital tends to return to domestic opportunities during uncertain times. Some of the prominent Grade-A Indian developers with presence in Dubai/UAE include Sobha Group, Shapoorji Pallonji Real Estate, Sunteck Realty, and Casagrand among others. Aditya John, Founder & Director, HowToDXB Real Estate, said investor sentiment is currently dented, and a slowdown in housing sales across Dubai and other UAE cities is imminent in the short term. ADVERTISEMENT Published 10 March 2026, 22:12 IST Dubai Real Estate West Asia housing Middle East Follow us on : Follow Us Read More