Global Air Passenger Traffic Declines 2.2% in May Due to Middle Eastern Conflict

The conflict in the Middle East continued to cast a shadow over global aviation in May, pulling down international passenger traffic even as demand across the rest of the world remained firmly in growth territory. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), international passenger demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), declined 1.6 per cent year-on-year in May. However, excluding the Middle East, international traffic grew 3.1 per cent, underlining that the weakness remained concentrated in the conflict-hit region rather than reflecting a broad slowdown in global travel. Overall global passenger demand fell 2.2 per cent during the month, while capacity declined by 2.3 per cent. Even so, airlines managed to maintain a record May load factor of 83.5 per cent, suggesting carriers continued to balance capacity and demand despite geopolitical disruptions. Domestic passenger traffic also weakened, declining 3.1 per cent year-on-year as the US and China reported softer domestic demand. “Air passenger demand was down 2.2 per cent year-on-year in May on the impact of war in the Middle East. The decline was centred on carriers in the Middle East with a 28.4 per cent year-on-year fall. That’s a significant improvement on the 46.6 per cent decline recorded for April, a sign of the region’s resilience,” said Willie Walsh, Director General, IATA. Walsh noted that passenger demand had remained resilient despite elevated fuel prices and higher airfares. However, he cautioned that the impact of the conflict could linger as uncertainty over oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz continues to influence jet fuel prices. “While the recent sharp drop in oil prices is an encouraging development, the challenges created by the war will likely persist for some time. Airlines operating on a 2.0 per cent margin will have little choice but to continue testing demand resilience with higher fares,” he said. Among international markets, Middle Eastern airlines remained the worst affected, reporting a 28.8 per cent decline in passenger demand and a 24.3 per cent reduction in capacity. However, the pace of decline almost halved from April, indicating that traffic conditions are gradually stabilising. Elsewhere, Europe recorded a 3.8 per cent increase in international demand, aided by a 15 per cent rise in direct services to Asia. Latin America posted the strongest growth at 10.5 per cent, followed by Africa at 8.9 per cent. Asia-Pacific airlines reported a modest 1.3 per cent increase, although tighter jet fuel import restrictions in Vietnam weighed on intra-Asia traffic. North American carriers also registered 1 per cent growth. Despite the global slowdown, airlines across most regions continued to post record or near-record load factors, highlighting the resilience of international travel demand outside the Middle East.