India Faces Drought Risk Amid Below-Normal Monsoon Forecast

The prospect of below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall from June to September this year is not a good augury for sowing operations for kharif crops like paddy , coarse cereals, pulses and soybean, the crucial months for which are June and July. This dismal forecast marks a rare agreement between the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and private weather forecaster Skymet. IMD expects the monsoon to be 92% of the long period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm, while Skymet forecasts rainfall at 94% of LPA in sync with its subpar assessment from January. Below normal means that rainfall over the season is likely to be below 96-104% of the LPA. Significantly, in both IMD’s and Skymet’s forecasts, the probabilities for deficient and below-normal rainfall are much higher than for normal, above-normal, and excess rainfall. A much higher 35% likelihood of rainfall deficiency below 90% of LPA, suggests drought conditions may haunt the countryside, a substantial proportion of which relies on rain-fed systems. In the IMD’s and Skymet forecasts, below-normal rainfall is largely due to the development of El Nino conditions—associated with the warming of sea surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean—which tends to weaken the southwest monsoon, like in 2014 and 2015. The cooling of such waters, referred to as the La Nina factor, results in a marked increase in rainfall. According to the IMD, weak La Nina-like conditions at present are transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific. But El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season according to the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System, which was developed by the Indian Institute for Tropical Meteorology. Unfortunately, other factors that can counter El Nino like the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will develop only towards the end of the season. Positive IOD conditions are good for rainfall while negative conditions due to cooler sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean relative to the warmer sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean suppress monsoon bursts. The prospect of the rain gods being parsimonious—with the spectre of drought conditions—unfortunately comes at a time when India is subject to supply-side shocks from the ongoing West Asian conflict, similar to what happened with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine four years ago. Just like back then, energy prices have skyrocketed and a full-blown global food crisis is likely if the conflict is protracted. The West Asian conflict portends a crisis in fertiliser production that will hit the global food system, including in India, ahead of the kharif season if it continues much further. The Strait of Hormuz , which is now virtually closed, is a vital artery for natural gas supplies used to produce nitrogen fertilisers and sulphur used to make phosphatic fertilisers. As if the prospects of below-normal rains are not bad enough, shortages and higher costs are bound to impact the kharif season if vital inputs continue to be blockaded in the region. The development of El Nino conditions presages lower agricultural output and higher prices. All this underscores the policy imperative of having contingency plans in place such as distributing climate-resistant seeds to combat the likelihood of drought conditions with deficient rainfall.