India's Russian Crude Oil Imports: Gradual Recalibration Rather Than Abrupt Halt

“February Russian inflows are unlikely to fall to zero because some cargoes are already scheduled.” That assessment from global oil market trackers captures the underlying reality behind the political noise surrounding India’s crude oil trade after US President Donald Trump claimed that New Delhi had agreed to stop buying Russian oil as part of a broader trade understanding with Washington. While Trump said tariffs on Indian goods would be cut to 18% from 50% and that India would pivot to buying more oil from the US and potentially Venezuela, energy market data, refinery logistics and inflation risks point to a gradual recalibration rather than an abrupt rupture in India’s Russian crude intake. According to S&P Global Energy, India cut Russian crude imports by nearly 70% month-on-month in January to about 436,000 barrels per day, while increasing purchases from the Middle East, West Africa and the United States. However, analysts stress that the decline does not amount to a clean break. “Flows already show rotation, but not a hard stop,” said Zhuwei Wang, Director of Research & Analysis at S&P Global Energy. “February Russian inflows are unlikely to fall to zero because some cargoes are already scheduled.” Shipping data suggest that several February and March arrivals were contracted weeks earlier, locking in near-term deliveries despite shifting geopolitical signals. Beyond physical flows, the economics of a rapid pivot remain sensitive. Ratings agency Moody’s Ratings has cautioned that an abrupt halt to Russian crude could have wider macroeconomic consequences. “Even though India has reduced its purchase of crude oil from Russia in recent months, it is unlikely to cease all purchases immediately,” Moody’s said. “A complete shift toward non-Russian oil could tighten supply elsewhere, raise prices and pass through to higher inflation, given that India is one of the world’s largest oil importers.” India imports around 4.5 million barrels per day of crude. According to ICRA Ltd, replacing discounted Russian barrels with market-priced crude would lift the country’s oil import bill by less than 2%—or roughly $2.7 billion annually on a $137-billion import base. “The discounts on Russian crude oil were marginal prior to US announcing sanctions on some Russian crude suppliers in October 2025, and ICRA estimates that replacement of Russian crude with market priced crude would lead to an increase in the import bill of the country by less than 2%. Additionally Venezuelan crudes are heavy and sour and therefore cheaper and would be of interest to Indian refiners, many of whom can process these types of crudes,” said Prashant Vasisht, Senior Vice President and Co-Group Head, Corporate Ratings, ICRA Ltd. Meanwhile, Kpler estimates the impact could be higher, at $3–4 billion a year, if about 1.8 million barrels per day of Russian volumes are displaced at a conservative $5 per barrel premium. Refinery and shipping logistics reinforce why Russian crude cannot disappear overnight. Crude cargoes from Russia are typically booked around 10 weeks in advance, industry executives said, and vessels carrying the commodity are currently at various stages of loading, transit and discharge. “As a result, cargoes booked nearly ten weeks ago will continue to offload at Indian ports—mostly on the west coast—through end-March and possibly into April 2026,” a senior refining official told Financial Express on condition of anonymity. “There has been no official communication or instruction from the government asking refiners to stop Russian purchases so far.” Market participants remain sceptical about a full exit from Russian oil, citing scale, discounts and strategic considerations. “The big question is whether we’ll stop taking Russian oil,” said Rahul Kalantri, Vice President (Commodities) at Mehta Equities. “India imports around 4.5 million barrels per day globally, and about 1.5 to 1.8 million barrels of that has been coming from Russia. With discounts widening, Russian oil was available at about $10 per barrel lower than India’s weighted crude basket.” Kalantri added that the calculus extends beyond economics. “Another factor is India’s defence ties with Russian armaments. Considering what President Trump mentioned about halting imports completely, my view is that there could be a geopolitical arrangement—possibly linked to Ukraine—under which India pauses Russian oil imports briefly, maybe for a month, after which flows resume.” On alternatives, he said Venezuela remains viable. “Venezuela has a significant stockpile—worth around $2–3 billion—stored in tankers globally. There is also a shadow fleet of about 700 tankers, including roughly 100 linked to Venezuela. Indian refineries are fully capable of processing heavy crude.” Trade data also support the view of moderation rather than elimination. “In January 2026, India’s Russian crude imports eased to around 1.1 million barrels per day, the lowest level since November 2022,” said Nikhil Dubey, Senior Research Analyst (Refining & Modelling) at Kpler. “Following the announcement of the US–India trade deal, volumes could soften further toward the sub-1 million barrels per day range,” Dubey said. “However, a complete halt looks unlikely at the moment. Even if PSU refiners scale back, Nayara is expected to continue lifting Russian barrels, given its ownership structure and current circumstances.” India has imported about €144 billion worth of Russian oil since February 2022, becoming the world’s second-largest buyer after China. Russia’s share of India’s crude basket surged from under 1% pre-war to nearly 40% at its peak, before easing to below 25% following tighter US sanctions. For now, the data suggest India’s Russian oil exposure is entering a managed descent, shaped as much by inflation math, refinery economics and shipping timelines as by geopolitics—indicating that any exit, if it comes, will be measured rather than sudden.