Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Emerges as Dominant Force in Governance

Iran’s political structure is undergoing a significant shift, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) emerging as the dominant force in governance, according to multiple reports. The growing influence of the paramilitary organisation is said to have sidelined elected leadership, reshaping the country’s power dynamics. Reports indicate that President Masoud Pezeshkian has been increasingly marginalised, with decision-making authority moving into the hands of senior IRGC officials amid a broader struggle for control following weakening clerical leadership. The situation has intensified after the reported death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which has created a leadership vacuum at the top of the Iranian system. While his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, is believed to have assumed a key role, there has been little public visibility or official communication from him. Speculation has grown over his condition, with some US officials suggesting he may be incapacitated. Reports further claim that a “military council” led by senior IRGC commanders has restricted access to him, effectively isolating him from government officials and limiting the flow of information. With the supreme leadership reportedly weakened or inaccessible, the IRGC has expanded its role beyond military operations to exert control over governance, including political appointments and intelligence decisions. Attempts by President Pezeshkian to engage with the leadership have reportedly been blocked. In one instance, the reported appointment of Hossein Dehghan as intelligence minister was vetoed by IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi, who is said to have argued that sensitive positions should fall directly under the Guard’s authority. The developments come as Iran faces mounting external pressure and internal strain. While US President Donald Trump has suggested the possibility of talks with “moderate” Iranian figures, reports indicate that hardline factions remain firmly in control. At the same time, divisions have reportedly emerged within Iran’s leadership over military strategy, with concerns that ongoing regional actions and disruptions to key routes like the Strait of Hormuz could further damage the country’s already fragile economy.