Israel's Political Deadlock: Three Scenarios Emerge as Gadi Eisenkot Seeks to Form Government

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, on Thursday (November 5) appeared to have secured the backing of a majority of lawmakers to try to form a government, with the Arab-majority Joint List formally endorsing his candidacy, The Times of Israel reported. Eisenkot and his allies, however, have not yet indicated whether they would accept the backing of the three-party alliance. Earlier, another Arab-led party, Ra’am, had said it would back the former military chief. Israel President Isaac Herzog Thursday said that it was still unclear who could break the deadlock that emerged after the October 27 national election, but pledged ⁠to nominate a candidate ​on Sunday. But both Eisenkot and Netanyahu’s alliances have been reluctant to rely on the two Arab blocs — which are critical of Israel’s policies but have emerged as potential kingmakers. As for the Arab parties, such an alliance would mean backing a government unlikely to end Israel’s wars or curb settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank. So what’s likely to happen next in the government-formation machinations following the Israeli elections? Here’s a look at three possible scenarios: First, who stands where in Israel? Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot secured the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority in the 120-member Knesset. Netanyahu’s right-wing and ultra-Orthodox coalition won 53 seats, while Eisenkot’s fractious alliance comprising his centrist Yashar party, as well as right-wing and centre-left factions, got 48 seats. But two Arab-led alliances together won an unprecedented 19 seats following a surge in turnout among Arab voters. While the United Arab List (Ra’am party) won eight seats, the Joint List — an alliance of Hadash, Ta’al and Balad parties — won 11. With the backing of both the Joint List and Ra’am, should he accept it, Eisenkot will have the support of 67 lawmakers, taking him past the majority mark of 61. Meanwhile, the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party, a longstanding ally of Netanyahu, declined to recommend any candidate to President Herzog, leaving the Prime Minister with the backing of just 46 lawmakers. Herzog on Wednesday accepted the certified results of the parliamentary elections as legally binding, rejecting the unsubstantiated allegations from Netanyahu’s bloc that Arab voters had stolen the election. He has since initiated consultations with party representatives before tasking the lawmaker he considers most likely to assemble a governing coalition with the formation of a new government. He has said he will do this by Sunday. This candidate will have 28 days to assemble a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension. And while Eisenkot has secured recommendations from a majority of lawmakers, this does not guarantee their support in a parliamentary confidence vote. Scenario 1 – Allying with Arab-majority parties Eisenkot’s Yashar party could form a minority government with outside support from the Arab-majority Joint List and Ra’am parties. Both parties have now endorsed Eisenkot to form the next government, although this does not guarantee they would support him in a parliamentary confidence vote. Ra’am is willing to join a coalition, while the Joint List has expressed interest in extending outside support, conditional on protections for Israel’s Arab communities. These parties’ 19 seats could theoretically give the Eisenkot bloc 67 seats. However, Eisenkot has long ruled out forming a government with the support of the Arab parties, citing a lack of shared values. In a statement issued on October 31, he reiterated four conditions for a prospective government, including recognising Israel as a Jewish, democratic, liberal and equal state; upholding the values of the Declaration of Independence; requiring all citizens to undertake military, national or civilian service; and dismantling Hamas’s military and governing power in Gaza. Eisenkot said any elected lawmaker accepting these principles could join his government. However, the conditions are likely to complicate negotiations with the Arab-majority parties, particularly over Israel’s character as a Jewish state and the Palestinian conflict. Allying with the Arab parties could also pose a challenge to other anti-Netanyahu leaders, such as Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman, who had campaigned against forming a government dependent on Arab parties. As The Indian Express previously explained , Israel’s Arab parties have emerged as potential kingmakers despite longstanding resistance to their inclusion in governing coalitions. Scenario 2 – Allying with the Haredim Alternatively, Eisenkot could seek support from the ultra-Orthodox UTJ. A longstanding Netanyahu ally, the party has been frustrated by his Likud party’s failure to preserve military-service exemptions for Haredi religious students following judicial intervention. According to a Channel 12 report on October 29, UTJ figures had considered supporting Eisenkot’s coalition from outside the government, in exchange for compromises on military-service exemptions. One possibility would be for its seven lawmakers to abstain from a confidence vote, leaving Netanyahu with 46 votes against Eisenkot’s 48, provided the Arab parties and other lawmakers also abstain. This could allow the latter to form a government without the Arab parties’ support. A government can win the Knesset’s confidence vote with a simple majority of lawmakers voting, even without securing 61 seats. However, Eisenkot would still need reliable parliamentary support to pass legislation and budgets, leaving a minority government vulnerable to collapse. The obstacle is military conscription: Eisenkot has made national service for all Israelis a condition for joining his government, while UTJ wants to preserve exemptions for Haredi students. Any agreement would require one or both sides to compromise on a central electoral position. Scenario 3 – A unity government… with Netanyahu A third alternative could be a national unity government that brings together Netanyahu and some of his political opponents, potentially under an arrangement to rotate the premiership. President Herzog has long favoured such an arrangement to avoid repeat elections, but it would require opposition leaders to abandon their central campaign promise of removing Netanyahu from power. There are precedents for cooperation between political rivals. Following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, for instance, former IDF chief turned lawmaker Benny Gantz and Eisenkot joined Netanyahu’s emergency wartime government, despite their political differences. An earlier power-sharing arrangement between Netanyahu and Gantz in 2020, however, collapsed before Gantz could serve as prime minister. Eisenkot, however, has repeatedly ruled out serving under Netanyahu, and the opposition camp has largely campaigned on removing the prime minister from power. A unity government would therefore require a significant political reversal, although a major security crisis could change these calculations. How Netanyahu could benefit from a prolonged deadlock Despite the backing of 67 lawmakers, Eisenkot still faces the challenge of turning their endorsements into a viable governing coalition, given the deep ideological divisions among his prospective allies. Under Israel’s Basic Law, the outgoing government continues to exercise its functions until a new one takes office. Netanyahu could therefore remain prime minister even if Eisenkot receives the mandate to form a government. If the president’s nominee fails to form a government within 28 days, extendable by another 14, Herzog can either give another lawmaker 28 days or inform the Knesset that no government can be formed. In either case, lawmakers may subsequently seek a final 14-day mandate for a candidate backed by at least 61 members. Continued failure would trigger fresh elections. Netanyahu has benefited from such political deadlock before. Between 2019 and 2020, he headed successive caretaker governments as Israel held repeated elections that failed to deliver a stable governing majority. The prolonged stalemate allowed him to remain prime minister despite his inability to secure a durable coalition. The October 27 verdict offers another opportunity. As The Indian Express previously explained , Israeli voters weakened Netanyahu’s coalition without decisively rejecting his leadership. His Likud party emerged as the single largest party with 27 seats, even though his wider alliance fell short of a majority. Fresh elections could give Netanyahu another opportunity to regain his parliamentary majority, although there is no guarantee of a more favourable result. More immediately, a failure to form a new government would prolong Netanyahu’s tenure as caretaker prime minister, even without a fresh parliamentary mandate.