Tamil Nadu Government-Formation Process Remains Uncertain Amid Horse-Trading Allegations

Uncertainty continued to hang over Tamil Nadu’s government-formation process on Saturday morning, with VCK chief Thol. Thirumavalavan emerging as a pivotal figure after withholding formal support to Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) despite earlier indications from his party. Through Friday night, Thirumavalavan remained at the centre of intense speculation, with political circles floating possibilities ranging from a Deputy Chief Minister’s role in a proposed TVK-led government to even a consensus Chief Ministerial face in a potential DMK-AIADMK arrangement. As the VCK leader was expected to finally reveal his stand on Saturday morning, TVK simultaneously found itself battling its first major allegation of horse-trading, after a disputed support letter involving an AMMK MLA briefly inflated the party’s claimed numbers before Governor Rajendra Arlekar. According to senior TVK sources, party leaders believed they had crossed the majority mark late Friday after securing what they thought was the support of Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam’s lone MLA. The legislator, who was staying at the Puducherry resort where AIADMK legislators had been lodged, was reportedly called outside briefly. Inside a car parked near the resort entrance, he allegedly signed a letter backing Vijay’s party after being promised a Cabinet portfolio in a future TVK-led government. TVK leaders quickly photographed the signed document, sent the image to Chennai via WhatsApp, and presented it before Governor Rajendra Arlekar as proof of support. But in the rush of the night, one thing appears to have been missed: the hard copy itself remained with the MLA. When Raj Bhavan later sought verification and reportedly asked for a formal letter on AMMK letterhead, the arrangement began collapsing. TTV Dhinakaran, the AMMK chief and an NDA ally, denied supporting TVK and instead reaffirmed support for AIADMK leader Edappadi K Palaniswami. Soon afterwards, the MLA – briefly untraceable during the night’s negotiations – was produced before the Governor’s office around midnight. By then, what TVK believed was a breakthrough had turned into allegations of attempted horse-trading. Inside TVK, senior leaders privately admitted the episode had damaged the party’s momentum. Some blamed Aadhav Arjuna, the party’s election campaign manager, saying the negotiations had been “badly mishandled”. The numbers, once again, became uncertain. TVK effectively stood at 116 through the night, awaiting formal support from the VCK. But Thirumavalavan, whose party had signalled alignment with the CPI and CPI(M), did not immediately submit his support letter. That silence deepened speculation. Through Friday night and into Saturday morning, Thirumavalavan moved through a maze of meetings, rumours and competing political futures. Sources close to him told The Indian Express that there were discussions involving both the DMK and AIADMK camps, including speculation that he had sought or been offered a larger role in a possible anti-TVK arrangement. Such an arrangement was never simple. The PMK, whose support base lies heavily among OBC Vanniyars, has long been locked in political and social confrontation with the VCK, which draws much of its strength from Dalit voters. Bringing both under one roof would require not just arithmetic, but the temporary suspension of years of caste-driven hostility and electoral combat. As broader acceptance from allies was still being negotiated early morning today, the VCK camp released word that Thirumavalavan would ultimately support TVK. A press conference venue was prepared. Yet hours later, Tamil Nadu was still waiting.