Tamil Nadu Political Crisis: DMK and AIADMK Explore Joint Fallback Scenario

The political race for numbers in Tamil Nadu threw up a new possibility late Wednesday that would have sounded politically improbable just a day ago: leaders of Dravidian arch rivals DMK and AIADMK are exploring a joint fallback scenario if Vijay’s TVK falls short of the majority mark, The Indian Express has learnt. Sources from both parties said one option being discussed was for the AIADMK to form a government with outside support from the DMK and backing from smaller parties. “Nothing has formally happened yet. But conversations among leaders and internal meetings across camps suggest that this possibility is no longer just theoretical,” sources said. The latest twist in the state’s post-election churn came after Vijay’s path to becoming the next Chief Minister hit an unexpected pause, with Governor Rajendra Arlekar insisting that the TVK produce documentary proof of majority support before any invitation to form the government. It also revealed how deeply the state’s political establishment was against a Congress-backed Vijay government — the Congress had earlier broken its longstanding alliance with the DMK to extend the support of its five MLAs to the TVK . TVK won 108 seats in the Assembly poll results declared Monday, but its tally is effectively 107 since Vijay will have to vacate one of the two constituencies he contested and won. In the resulting 233-member House, the majority mark is 117. The DMK won 59 seats and the AIADMK 47, giving them a combined tally of 106. Until late Wednesday, TVK leaders believed Vijay could be sworn in first and given time to prove his majority on the Assembly floor. The Governor’s stand, however, created a numbers vacuum that prompted the old Dravidian establishment to reorganise itself. “The first move came from AIADMK, and DMK did not reject it instantly,” sources said. At the centre of new tensions lies the Congress decision. The party, while formally backing TVK, also signalled a broader political understanding covering future local body elections, Rajya Sabha polls and the next Lok Sabha election. That support initially appeared to rescue Vijay’s prospects but, within hours, seemed to be isolating him from other possible allies. Senior leaders in Anbumani Ramadoss-led PMK (4 MLAs), Thol Thirumavalavan-led VCK (2 MLAs) and T V Dhinakaran’s AMMK (1 MLA), who until Wednesday morning had maintained informal lines of communication with TVK intermediaries, began distancing themselves from the possibility of supporting a Vijay-led government. Sources in several NDA allies, too, told The Indian Express that the Congress-TVK understanding had fundamentally changed the situation. Two NDA insiders indicated that “ Delhi ” had conveyed that alliance partners should not facilitate a TVK government backed by Congress. Senior DMK leaders, meanwhile, privately expressed anger at how the Congress had handled the situation. A senior leader said Rahul Gandhi had spoken to M K Stalin over phone and reassured him: “I am with you, brother.” By the following day, he said, Congress had formally moved toward supporting TVK. “Rahul could have done this more gracefully. The Congress’s MLAs and MPs in Tamil Nadu were elected largely because DMK voters supported the alliance. Otherwise, they couldn’t win a single seat,” the leader said. A former DMK minister described the evolving situation as “politically uncomfortable” but “not unethical”. “It would be unethical if we poach MLAs. Let Vijay prove his mandate. If he fails, then the next developments can evolve politically,” the leader said. With the phrase — “if he fails” — hanging over nearly every conversation in Chennai ’s political circles, a new political choreography began to play out Wednesday night. According to AIADMK sources, around 50 party MLAs were being moved to The Shore Trishvam resort in Puducherry as part of internal consultations and contingency planning. By around 10.30 pm, roughly 15 legislators had already reached the resort, while several others were still travelling. Under the scenario being discussed informally across camps, Vijay would first be asked to prove his majority. If he fails, the AIADMK could stake claim to form the government with Edappadi K Palaniswami as Chief Minister, and the DMK extending outside support while smaller parties receive space within a coalition arrangement. Parties ranging from PMK and AMMK in the NDA alliance to CPM (2 MLAs), CPI (2 MLAs), VCK, DMDK (1 MLA) and IUML (2 MLAs) are expected to be part of this arrangement. Leaders in both camps insist no final decision has been taken and that discussions remain fluid. But multiple meetings over the past two days, including AIADMK legislators’ meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday, and a DMK legislators’ meeting expected Thursday, are increasingly being viewed through that prism. The public justification being informally circulated by sections in both Dravidian camps: they are not opposing Vijay’s mandate, they are merely insisting that he demonstrate it constitutionally. “If he succeeds, he governs. If he fails, a different arrangement becomes legitimate,” sources said. What was left unsaid was how voters, especially first-time TVK supporters, would react if a government emerged through an arrangement involving the very parties many believed they had voted to challenge. Earlier Wednesday, during his meeting with Vijay at Raj Bhavan, the Governor is learnt to have reiterated that any claim to form the government must be accompanied by a list demonstrating support from at least 117 MLAs. “The Governor reminded Vijay that he had already conveyed during an earlier phone conversation that documentary proof of majority support would be essential,” TVK sources said. Raj Bhavan sources indicated that the Governor is expected to leave for Kerala on Thursday. The development effectively derailed TVK’s plan of a quick swearing-in ceremony on Thursday or Friday, where Vijay and three or four senior colleagues would take oath.