Trump's Defeat: A Turning Point for America

As America’s midterm polls gave the Democrats control over Congress, President Donald Trump was quick to announce that he was ready to work with them. How he will do that remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the quarrels within the Republican Party reflect the extent to which he and the party were oblivious to the domestic concerns of American voters, which included rising energy prices, the cost of health care, and a surging national debt. The Republican Party must share the blame for its rout because its meek acceptance of Trump’s nearly 300 executive orders in less than two years of his second presidency, which ordered the violation of international law by joining forces with a bellicose, racist, and Islamophobic Israeli government in its illegal invasion of Iran, one which precipitated a sharp rise in energy prices at home and abroad. Iran and energy are the issues on which the election results saw the intertwining of America’s foreign policy and its domestic problems. Yet, Trump kept expanding his war while showing gross indifference to the basic needs of American citizens. At another level, having admitted that the Republicans lost because of the US-Iran war, any attempt to force Iran—which now hopes that its war with America will end—to surrender is unlikely to work and would put at increased risk the global economy and the security and stability of Persian Gulf strategic partners. On top of that, voters saw for themselves the corrupt practices of Trump and his family, and also their personal enrichment, especially at a time when the declining financial fortunes of ordinary Americans forced them into spending more on groceries and petrol while having less cash in hand to spend on healthcare. Even as his son-in law, Jared Kushner, claimed to be a “volunteer” diplomatic negotiator for the president between Israel and Hamas, his ownership of the lucrative investment firm, Affinity Partners—financed largely by Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf kingdoms—became the single largest shareholder in an Israeli conglomerate, Phoenix Financial. That is a publicly traded Israeli company operating in the fields of insurance and asset and investment management. Phoenix Financial holds shares in at least nine Israeli military suppliers and provides services to the Israeli Ministry of Defence and the Israel Police in areas captured by Israel in its 1967 war with three Arab countries—Egypt, Jordan, and Syria. Trump himself used the presidency to make money for himself from cryptocurrency and foreign investments , raising questions about the “monetising” of his presidential power. It is clear from the voting counts and their geographical distribution that many of his supposedly MAGA supporters turned against him as they saw the president and his family accumulating wealth by foul means while prospective American voters became poorer. How much power will the victorious Democrats have in Congress? Democrats will now have the power to block legislation and judicial and senior government appointments. But they lack the numbers to override the president’s veto, his “ultimate power”. Trump would actually welcome the title of “Mr. Veto”. Mindful of why the electorate turned against Trump, the newly-elected Congress could launch investigations into his administration and make life uncomfortable for Pete Hegseth, the war secretary, or big tech magnates like Elon Musk. Contributions made by honchos to his numerous “vanity projects”, including the new White House $900-million ballroom, while less prosperous citizens complained about inflation, have given businessmen a bad name, devoid of any social conscience. Democrats might even consider impeaching Trump, but they gave up on two earlier attempts because of the protracted processes that characterise impeachment. Additionally, the threat of impeachment or investigations into the presidential family’s business dealings by a predominantly Democratic Congress could make the president feel cornered, rebellious, and angry. Trump is far from being finished. That is what many foreign countries, including allies who found it hard to stand their ground with the world’s most powerful political leader, should bear in mind. It would be wrong to assume that a lame-duck, boxed-in Trump, lacking a constructive foreign policy, would be a safer player in the international arena, even if a Congress controlled by Democrats opposes his tariffs, his attack on Iran, and lifting of sanctions on an expansionist Russia despite its invasion of Ukraine. Generally, a weakened Trump could become more aggressive. Facing constraints in Congress and the courts, he could refuse to mend fences with anyone from Democrats to Europeans, and continue to threaten them as he pleases. Facing a debt burden, he could demand that Europeans take greater responsibility for themselves and restructure their individual welfare systems, while remaining protectionist in the US. The president retains independent executive authority and trade powers under existing laws. Friction over tariffs and trade will not disappear overnight. Trump could also frighten European allies by colluding with Russia against Ukraine, or Asian ones by giving China a free hand on Taiwan. In fact, the main barrier to turning such threatening situations into policy would not be a Democratic Congress. Instead, a painful effort would be required on the ground to reposition American troops by negotiating with West European allies, an expansionist China, and a warmongering Russia. Since politics, to some extent, is about striking deals, the chances of the Democrats signing some of those deals cannot be ruled out. But such signing could backfire on them. On another plane, reversing the damage done to US institutions could take years, all the more so because Trump will remain in power for a little over 24 months. Meanwhile, liberals worldwide will rejoice at the intertwined defeat of the Republicans, the historic electoral triumph of the Democrats, and the celebration of America’s democracy. The writer is Founding Professor, Centre for Peace and Conflict Resolution Disclaimer: The views expressed are the author’s own and do not reflect the official policy or position of Financial Express.