US Midterm Elections Add to Netanyahu's Political Troubles

The Democratic Party’s victory in the US midterm elections has added to Benjamin Netanyahu ’s political troubles, with Israel already facing a hung parliament and uncertainty over who will form the next government. Democrats have won control of both the US House of Representatives and the Senate, according to Associated Press projections. The result could bring major changes to Washington’s relationship with Israel, including fresh pressure to restrict arms sales to the country. The outcome has also made it harder for Netanyahu to secure support for a unity government at home. Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid said the US election result, along with the controversy surrounding Shin Bet chief David Zini, had removed any possibility of forming a unity government under Netanyahu, according to The Times of Israel. The developments come at a sensitive time for Israel, which is still waiting for political parties to begin talks on forming the next government after an election that left both major political blocs short of a majority. Adding to the uncertainty, US President Donald Trump said on election day that American military aid to Israel, worth around $4 billion annually, would end by the close of 2026. Fox News reported that Trump said Netanyahu had raised the possibility of ending the aid. However, he did not explain which parts of the assistance would be stopped or how the decision would be carried out. Trump also said he did not want to give Democrats another talking point on the issue. However, the announcement has raised questions because the existing US-Israel military aid agreement is still in force. The Times of Israel reported that Trump’s claim appeared almost certainly false, as the current 10-year agreement does not expire until later. The memorandum of understanding between the two countries runs until the end of the 2028 US fiscal year. Thomas Warrick, an analyst at the Atlantic Council, told Al Jazeera that he expected US military assistance to Israel to be gradually reduced during 2027, rather than ending by December 2026. Al Jazeera also pointed out that the US Congress controls the allocation of military aid. This means Trump cannot end the funding on his own. The final results announced by Israel’s Central Elections Committee show that Netanyahu’s political bloc has won 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset. The anti-Netanyahu bloc has secured 48 seats, while Arab-led parties have won 19 seats. Voter turnout stood at 77.9%, The Times of Israel reported. The numbers mark a major setback for Netanyahu’s side. His bloc controlled 68 seats in the outgoing Knesset but has now fallen well short of the 61 seats needed to form a government. According to Al Jazeera’s breakdown of the results, Netanyahu’s Likud party emerged as the largest party with 27 seats. It was followed by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which won 21 seats. Neither side has enough support to form a government on its own. Netanyahu has not lost his position as prime minister and will continue in office while the process of forming a new government takes place. However, the Arab-led parties could play a decisive role in determining who comes to power. They have won a record number of seats, making their support important for any possible coalition. Eisenkot has ruled out joining a government led by Netanyahu, even if the two leaders agree to a rotation arrangement in which they share the prime minister’s position, The Jerusalem Post reported. The Associated Press also reported that Netanyahu had suggested it would be treasonous for Eisenkot to work with Arab-led parties. With neither major bloc able to secure the required numbers, Israel could face another election early next year if political leaders fail to reach an agreement. The next step in the government formation process will begin with President Isaac Herzog receiving the official election results. Herzog was scheduled to receive the results at noon on November 4. He is expected to begin consultations with elected political parties at 5 pm, starting with the smaller parties, according to The Jerusalem Post and JNS. Under Israeli law, the president has until November 11 to choose a political leader and ask them to form the next government, The Times of Israel reported. The leader selected by Herzog will then have to secure enough support in the Knesset to form a government. Herzog has urged political leaders to make every effort to avoid another election, The Jerusalem Post reported. The election results have also triggered a political dispute over claims of foreign interference. Netanyahu’s Likud party has alleged that Arab-led parties “stole” votes with financial support from Qatar, Al Jazeera reported. However, the party has not provided evidence to support the claim. CNN reported that no evidence of election manipulation has been presented and that election authorities have rejected the allegations. Central Elections Committee chief Noam Sohlberg said that even if suspicions of foreign interference were proved, the election results would still remain valid. He also rejected Likud’s request to delay the official certification of the results. Sohlberg said the committee did not have the legal authority to put the process on hold, The Times of Israel reported. The allegations have drawn a sharp response from opposition leaders. Eisenkot accused Netanyahu of running an “orchestrated and organised campaign” to question the legitimacy of the election results, Al Jazeera reported. Arab party leaders, meanwhile, have said they want to form a government as quickly as possible and avoid sending Israelis back to the polls. According to AFP, their immediate goal is to find a way forward through negotiations and prevent another election. However, with Netanyahu refusing to step aside and Eisenkot ruling out joining a government under him, the coming days of political consultations could prove crucial for Israel’s next government.