Germany's Social Democrats Face Existential Threat After Worst-Ever Election Result
Following the state elections in Baden-Württemberg , the mood at the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), Germany's oldest political party, oscillates between utter shock and a sense of helplessness. With 5.5% of the vote, the SPD just managed to cross the 5% threshold for representation in parliament. This has been its worst result in post-war history. The SPD has achieved single-digit results in four other federal states since 2021. At the federal level, too, success has been elusive: For a long time now, the SPD has been languishing between just 13% and 16%. What has become of the former people's party, which in its heyday would win over almost every second voter in Germany? To understand what went wrong, we need to rewind through its history: The SPD was founded as a traditional workers' party in 1863, which makes it the country's oldest political party. In that period, it aimed to be the political representative of factory workers, whose precarious lives were characterized by long working hours, low wages, job insecurity, a lack of occupational safety and a housing shortage. Blue collar workers became the SPD's voter base, buying into the promise of education, equal opportunities and equal rights for all, regardless of class or origin. Nowadays, the traditional working class no longer exists: Well-paid industrial workers have long become the middle class in society. The Left: A split from the SPD According to a survey by pollster Forsa in November 2025, only 9% of Germany's blue-collar workers and the unemployed said they would vote for the SPD. Those who feel socially disadvantaged now tend to sympathize with the far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD). After the general election in February 2025, an infratest-dimap poll found that 38% of working class voters had cast their ballot for the AfD. Many former SPD voters have also switched to the socialist Left Party , which was formed in part because of dissatisfaction with the social welfare policies of the SPD under Chancellor Gerhard Schröder , who headed a coalition government with the Greens from 1998 to 2005. The Left was formed in 2007 through the merger of the Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS) — the successor to East Germany 's ruling party — and Labour and Social Justice — The Electoral Alternative, which split from the SPD in Western Germany . Schröder and his SPD came to power in 1998 after 16 years of Chancellor Helmut Kohl , of the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU). The SPD won almost 41% of the vote through a campaign that wooed voters not just on the left, but in the political center. In the face of high unemployment and a sluggish economy, Schröder pushed through a radical reform of the welfare state, called " Agenda 2010 ." State social benefits were cut, employment protection was relaxed, and the low-wage sector was expanded. A history of Germany's coalition governments Only once has federal Germany been ruled by a single party with a parliamentary majority. Coalitions are, therefore, the norm. DW looks at the various governing combinations that have presided in the Bundestag. Image: Fabrizio Bensch/REUTERS CDU-SPD (2025-?) Yet another coalition of the conservative Christian Democratic Union, Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) and the center-left Social Democrat Party (SPD) has taken office on May 6, 2025. Both the CDU and the SPD have dwindled in recent years, so there is now no talk of "grand coalition" as they embark on a mission to save Germany's economy from decline and society from further polarization. Image: Florian Gaertner/IMAGO SPD-Green Party-FDP (2021-2024) From 2021 until late 2024, Germany was governed by a center-left coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), ecologist Greens and neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), whose color is yellow. The government known as "Ampel" (traffic light) in Germany, started out as a self-declared "Fortschrittskoalition" (progress coalition) but got mired in infighting and became the least popular government ever. Image: Michael Kappeler/dpa/picture alliance CDU/CSU-SPD (2013-2021) After taking more than 40% of the vote, Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives probably weren't expecting to rule with the SPD. However, her old allies, the FDP failed to meet the 5% threshold to enter the Bundestag, and options were limited. Merkel called on the SPD to join her and "take on the responsibility to build a stable government." She made the same speech again four years later. Image: Maurizio Gambarini/dpa/picture alliance CDU/CSU-FDP (2009-2013) The SPD, part of the outgoing coalition, picked up a disappointing 23% in the 2009 federal election. The Free Democrats, by contrast, won more than 14% of the vote. Chancellor Angela Merkel (center) and the FDP's Guido Westerwelle (left) formed a coalition with relative ease. It was, after all, Germany's 11th CDU/CSU-FDP government. Image: Markus Schreiber/AP Photo/picture alliance CDU/CSU-SPD (2005-2009) "Grand coalitions" do not come easily. When the first exit polls came in, both Gerhard Schröder (left) and Angela Merkel (right) declared themselves the winner. In the end, Merkel's conservatives defeated the SPD by just 1%. Germany's two largest parties agreed to form the country's second-ever grand coalition, and Schröder left politics. Image: Stefan Sauer/dpa/picture alliance SPD-Green Party (1998-2005 ) In 1998, the CDU/CSU lost a general election and SPD candidate Gerhard Schröder (left) became chancellor, heading a center-left government with the Green Party. Joschka Fischer of the Greens took over the Foreign Ministry. Image: Andreas Altwein/dpa/picture-alliance CDU-DSU-Democratic Awakening (1990) Shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall, East Germany held its first free election. The Christian Democrats under Lothar de Maiziere took over 40% of the vote. They went into coalition with two small parties: German Social Union and Democratic Awakening, whose members included one Angela Merkel. In October that year, the government signed the reunification treaty with West Germany. Image: Wolfgang Kumm/dpa/picture alliance CDU/CSU-FDP (1982-1998) The friendship between the SPD and FDP ended as the two parties' differing ideologies became irreconcilable in the early 1980s. The liberals again switched sides, seeking a deal with the conservatives. They formed a new CDU/CSU-FDP coalition under the leadership of Helmut Kohl (pictured), who remained chancellor for 16 years until well after German reunification. SPD-FDP (1969-1982) Willy Brandt (left) became Germany's first Social Democratic chancellor in the postwar period. The CDU/CSU was the strongest party, but Brandt struck a deal with the FDP to secure a narrow majority in the Bundestag. This wouldn't be the last time the FDP would be called out for a lack of loyalty. In 1974, Brandt was replaced by Helmut Schmidt (right), who went on to win two more elections. Image: Sammy Minkoff/picture alliance CDU/CSU - SPD (1966-1969) The first-ever "grand coalition" was not the product of an election. Ludwig Erhard was re-elected in 1965 and continued to rule alongside the FDP who left the government in the following year over budget disputes. Erhard also resigned and Kurt Kiesinger (center) was chosen to take over. With the FDP out, he governed with the center-left Social Democrats, led by Willy Brandt. Image: UPI/dpa/picture-alliance CDU/CSU-FDP (1961-1966) After four years of ruling West Germany on their own between 1957 and 1961, the conservatives lost their majority in the Bundestag and were forced to enter into coalition with the Free Democrats again. Adenauer resigned in 1963 for his part in the so-called "Spiegel" scandal. His economic affairs minister, Ludwig Erhard (left), was elected by parliament to take over. Image: Alfred Hennig/dpa/picture-alliance CDU/CSU-FDP-DP (1949-1961) The first democratic government to govern West Germany since the end of World War II saw Christian Democratic Union leader Konrad Adenauer form a governing coalition with the Free Democrats and the German Party (a now-defunct national conservative party). It had a very slim majority. Small coalition partners fell by the wayside, eventually leaving the CDU/CSU to govern alone. Image: - /dpa/picture alliance 12 images 1 | 12 12 images The SPD lost half of its voters The conservative opposition bloc of the CDU and Christian Social Union (CSU) enthusiastically applauded this agenda, which gave a boost to the German economy. Within the SPD, however, it led to massive disputes. The left wing of the party rebelled and no longer wanted to support Schröder's policies. Within 10 years, the SPD had lost almost half of its voters — to the Left, the Greens and even the CDU, as Angela Merkel, by then the chancellor, steadily nudged her conservatives leftward. Her conservative critics called this "the social democratization of the CDU." It became increasingly difficult for voters to distinguish between the policies of the CDU/CSU and the SPD — especially as the CDU/CSU and SPD governed together in a coalition for most of the period from 2005 to 2021. During this time, the SPD made many political compromises and was unable to push many of its more left-wing social and tax policies through. Another chapter of failure Before the 2021 general election, the SPD was polling at 16%, but, following major gaffes by the conservatives during the election campaign, it emerged as the strongest party, winning 25.7% of the vote. Olaf Scholz , the finance minister and vice chancellor under Merkel, became chancellor. The party hoped that it was finally back on the road to success. The opposite was the case. The three-way coalition led by Scholz was hampered by massive infighting between the Greens and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP). The government collapsed prematurely after only three years in power and the SPD's reputation was further damaged. In the 2025 election , it only managed to secure around 16%, prompting the head of the Forsa institute, Manfred Güllner, to speak of an "existential threat" to the SPD. New SPD policy platform shifts to the left In 2025, the SPD once again entered government, this time in a coalition as the junior partner to Chancellor Friedrich Merz 's CDU/CSU — and now the party faces familiar problems. Once again, they run the risk of being unable to define their own profile. The SPD has begun working on a new policy platform for 2027 that is to feature left-wing social policies. But how credible is that? Such demands will not prevail against its current coalition partner. Under Merz, the CDU has once again become significantly more conservative. In view of empty state coffers and a very weak economy, cuts in social spending are on the cards, the CDU/CSU is planning a major reform of the welfare state, the pension system, healthcare, and care for the elderly. The SPD also believes that many of the proposals are necessary, but has demanded a more humane approach. The party has benefited slightly in polls from this push for more social equality. The federal government is currently trying to avoid an open dispute because of the upcoming state elections — but it seems increasingly paralyzed in terms of domestic policy. Political observers expect both the CDU and the SPD to draw consequences from the first two state elections in March, in the southwestern states of Baden-Württemberg and, following that, the western state of Rhineland-Palatinate , where the SPD has headed the government since 1991. If it were to lose power there, pressure is likely to grow within the party to distance itself from CDU/CSU on the national level. This article was originally written in German. It was first published on February 18 2026 and later updated to reflect news developments. While you're here: Every Tuesday, DW editors round up what is happening in German politics and society. You can sign up here for the weekly email newsletter, Berlin Briefing.
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