India's Defence Deal with France: A Wager on Autonomy
An old French proverb says, “With money, one can buy almost anything — except time.” That captures the wager India is making as it deepens its defence relationship with France. New Delhi is prepared to spend lavishly to compress decades of technological learning into a single purchasing cycle. Whether Paris can — or will — sell India the future it wants in its entirety, especially source codes for the Rafale, will determine the extent of acceleration for the Indian defence ecosystem. A giant boost for Make in India Even so, the technology transfer will be of a very high order. Already Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has asked Dassault Aviation to increase India-made components. The aim is an ambitious 50 per cent of the aircraft’s software systems, structure and components to be made in India. This is a radical new beginning for the Indian defence ecosystem; to paraphrase Red Bull, it gives Indian aviation wings. India’s prospective deal for 114 Rafale fighters, alongside an additional 34 Rafale M naval variants, would be the largest combat aircraft purchase in its history. Valued at an estimated $35 billion, it is akin to India issuing something close to a blank cheque. The prize is not the aircraft, but autonomy — over weapons, software, data and, ultimately, engines. For France, the attraction is obvious: assured orders, geopolitical relevance in the Indo-Pacific, and a chance to lock in a strategic partner. For India, the danger lies in the detail. That detail has tripped India before. Historically, New Delhi bought complete weapon systems with minimal transfer of technology, discovering too late that assembly is not mastery. This time, the ask is sharper and quantified: India is paying for core technology. India wants Rafales configured to employ indigenous weapons, missiles and ammunition; to operate over secure, sovereign data links; and to fuse Indian radars and sensors seamlessly into the aircraft’s mission system. That implies modifications to onboard software architectures — flight, mission and weapons-management code — to guarantee secure command, control and data transmission across Indian networks. In short, the Rafale must be Indian in every weapon-launching and fire-control detail. That is what the money upfront is for, and that is the key takeaway from President Macron’s India visit. It’s Rafale Plus The frontier of technology transfer in the defence ecosystem with France now extends to the making of a utility helicopter, the H125, and the know-how to manufacture the French AASM “Hammer” family of precision-guided stand-off munitions domestically. A Safran–BEL partnership would localise production of the weapons already flown by the IAF on Rafale and Tejas fighters. This deal goes beyond screwdriver assembly. India is pressing for transfer of technology in the missile’s most sensitive domains: propulsion (the rocket motor and its materials), guidance (inertial navigation and satellite-aided correction), and terminal seekers and fuzing. Indications are that the French are willing to pursue real co-production — a historic new alliance in defence manufacturing. The missile has a range of up to 70 kilometres in different configurations. This stand-off range becomes critical in modern air warfare; it can dictate engagement. The largest cheque, however, may yet be written for aircraft engines. India’s future combat aircraft — both advanced variants and next-generation designs — will live or die by propulsion. Mastery here determines thrust-to-weight ratios, fuel efficiency, maintenance cycles and growth potential. France, through its industrial ecosystem, has something to offer; the 120-kilonewton engine jointly developed with India could be on offer. Yet any French proposal will have to compete with Rolls-Royce and others, so courting India with promises of co-development and deeper design access becomes critical for Paris. India has made up its mind to acquire the best, and France, being pragmatic, could likely emerge as the supplier of choice. Engines are where rhetoric meets reality. No country parts easily with the crown jewels that power its own fighters. Yet there is far too much monetary and geopolitical stake in the post-Trump era for both New Delhi and Paris to miss this opportunity. Even when India gets the highest level of technology, its ambition collides with its capacity to absorb. Technology transfer is not a USB stick handed over at contract signature; it is a long, messy process of learning by doing. France can open doors, but India must be able to walk through them. India needs to be ready on a war footing to absorb technology through trained manpower, institutional capacity and industrial system adoption. It is no easy ask, but the time for it has come and, with political will, it is entirely possible.There are strategic implications too. A deeper India-France defence compact subtly rebalances India’s portfolio away from over-reliance on any single supplier. It gives New Delhi leverage in negotiations elsewhere and embeds France in India’s security calculus across air, sea and space. For Paris, India is a market of scale and a partner that treats strategic autonomy as more than a slogan. That alignment explains France’s relative openness — and India’s willingness to pay. This has worked in the past. France gave India Mirage 2000 aircraft that were capable of delivering nuclear weapon payloads. Those were expensive aircraft, but that was a capability nobody else was offering. France has a positive historical record in defence contracts with India. With this mega deal, India gets ready to transform Make in India defence and give it unprecedented depth. On the menu are advanced avionics software, design data, process know-how, software rights and test facilities that will change how India manufactures in defence. The Rafale deal, then, is less a purchase than a referendum on India’s defence industrial strategy. India must be watchful beyond writing the cheque and spend equal political capital on absorption, governance and clarity. For India’s play in the global defence ecosystem, it is full-throttle time. The writer is a senior journalist with expertise in defence. Views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect those of Firstpost. At the Munich Security Conference, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio signalled not a rupture but a recalibration of the transatlantic alliance. While reaffirming shared heritage and history, he made clear that the post-Cold War rules-based order has given way to a harder, interest-driven framework. The United States now views alliance through the lens of sovereignty, borders and national interest rather than liberal universalism. Institutions will endure only if they deliver outcomes aligned with American priorities. Europe faces a choice: align more closely with Washington’s strategic agenda or pursue greater autonomy. Munich marked the transformation of the alliance into a more conditional compact. Get the latest stories delivered straight to your inbox.
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