Airlines Seize Opportunity Amid West Asia Disruption
As geopolitical tensions in West Asia disrupt one of the worldβs key aviation corridors, European and Southeast Asian airlines are seizing the opportunity to establish direct flights between key cities in both regions. Airlines such as Lufthansa, Singapore Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Cathay Pacific, and Air India are capitalising on the situation by enhancing connectivity between Europe and Southeast Asian destinations. Lufthansa announced plans to launch five weekly flights between Frankfurt and Kuala Lumpur starting October 2026, marking the first direct service to Malaysia from any Lufthansa Group home market. Cathay Pacific expanded its European network to 11 destinations with new routes to Munich and Brussels, increasing weekly flights from 78 to 93. Similarly, China Eastern Airlines opened a Xiβan-Vienna connection in April and now operates to 12 European airports nonstop from Shanghai, controlling roughly 83 per cent of Europe-China capacity. Singapore Airlines confirmed 2,270 weekly passenger flights for summer 2026, restoring 86 per cent of pre-pandemic capacity with expanded services to Frankfurt, Paris and Rome. Air India added 78 flights between March 10 and March 18 to New York, London, Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam and Zurich, creating 17,660 additional seats on routes that bypass Middle Eastern airspace. The expansion of European and Southeast Asian airlines comes in the wake of military strikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iran, which have prompted Iranian retaliatory actions and widespread airspace closures in the West Asian region. Major airports such as Dubai International, Abu Dhabiβs Zayed International, and Dohaβs Hamad International have experienced significant disruptions, leading to the grounding of flights for Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad for several days. Since the onset of the conflict, over 27,000 flights have been cancelled, impacting approximately 1.5 million passengers and compelling airlines worldwide to suspend or reroute numerous flights. Linus Benjamin Bauer, founder of aviation consultancy BAA & Partners, said the disruption creates short-term advantages for carriers operating direct services. He added that Asian airlines may see benefits, including higher ticket prices and stronger cargo rates, but cautioned that βfundamentally, this is a redistribution of aviation demand, not a structural reorganisation of the global aviation networkβ. However, for Indian airlines like Air India and IndiGo, the disruption is compounded by Pakistanβs decision to close its airspace to Indian-registered aircraft. This closure forces Indian carriers to take longer, circuitous routes to Europe and North America, adding hundreds of kilometres and up to four or five hours of additional flying time to journeys. Air India has been forced to incorporate technical stops in cities such as Rome or Egypt for refuelling on routes to the United States. Nuvama Research noted that these airspace restrictions put Indian airlines at a βstrategic disadvantage,β forcing them to either accept lower margins or lose passengers to foreign rivals. In contrast, Western airlines such as Lufthansa and United remain largely unaffected by the Pakistan closure because that airspace remains open to them. This access allows European carriers to fly shorter, more fuel-efficient routes between Europe and Southeast Asian cities. Chinese carriers have gained an additional advantage by retaining access to Russian airspace, which European airlines lost after Russiaβs 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Flights from Europe to Asia via Russian routes are two to four hours shorter than alternatives, cutting fuel costs and travel time. Historically, West Asian airports have served as crucial transit points, handling around one-third of the approximately 125 million passengers travelling annually between Europe and Asia. However, with these hubs operating at reduced capacity or being temporarily closed, travellers are increasingly turning to carriers that offer nonstop flights or connections through alternative hubs in Turkey, the Caucasus, or southern routes via Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The demand for travel between Europe and Southeast Asia has also been on the rise, and the Asian tourism market is projected to reach a value of around $39.52 billion by 2026. Further growth is also anticipated, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 11.27 per cent through 2031. Asia accounted for 31.7 per cent of the global international travel demand in the first half of 2026, marking the highest share reported in over a decade, according to travel intelligence firm Mabrian. In 2024, Southeast Asia welcomed over 120 million international visitors. Airfares on certain Asia-Europe routes have also skyrocketed, with some prices increasing by as much as 900 per cent. Chai Eamsiri, chief executive of Thai Airways, last week said that his airline has seen increased bookings on direct European routes as passengers who previously connected through the Middle East switch to nonstop services. βMany flights are now close to full, with fares moving under dynamic pricing in response to heavy demand,β Eamsiri said. For example, last-minute one-way economy tickets from London to Singapore have soared to $8,540, in stark contrast to typical prices that are often below $1,000 at the end of the month. Similarly, fares from Bangkok to London have surged to over 70,000 baht, up from an average of 30,000 baht, with seats already fully booked through mid-March.
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